UK house prices fall for fifth month in a row

UK home costs fall for fifth month in a row

UK home costs fell greater than anticipated for the fifth straight month between December and January, the longest stretch of decline for the reason that 2008-09 monetary disaster, as larger mortgage charges hit would-be consumers.

property price Mortgage supplier Nationwide stated on Wednesday it fell 0.6 % within the December-January interval, beneath the 0.3 % decline forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

The common UK home value fell for the fifth time since September to £258,297, down from a peak of round £274,000 in August. There has by no means been such a chronic decline in 14 years.

Gabriella Dickens, UK senior economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, stated Wednesday’s information confirmed home costs “continued to fall beneath the strain of rising mortgage charges, strain on actual incomes and weak shopper confidence”. .

The annual fee of residence value development additionally slowed, from 2.8% in December to 1.1% in January, the slowest tempo since June 2020 and beneath economists’ expectations.

£'000 line chart shows average UK house prices fall again in January

Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, stated it was “very troublesome for the market to regain power within the close to time period” as actual incomes have been anticipated to fall additional and the labor market was extensively anticipated to weaken because the economic system shrank. weak.

He added that the most important change for potential consumers over the previous yr has been the rise in typical mortgage servicing prices because of larger mortgage charges.

This bank of england The common mortgage fee for brand new loans rose to three.67% in December, the very best in a decade, it stated Tuesday. Mortgage charges observe medium-term expectations for rate of interest coverage from the Financial institution of England, which has raised rates of interest to curb excessive inflation.

Financial institution information additionally confirmed that in December, Mortgage approvals fall It fell to its lowest stage since January 2009, excluding the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Market expects Financial institution of England’s Financial Coverage Committee raise interest rates It added one other 50 foundation factors to 4% when it meets on Thursday, and 0.1% by November 2021.

The decline in residence costs since August is reversing a number of the uncommon actual property value features which have occurred for the reason that pandemic hit.

Common home costs have risen by round £58,000, or round 27%, from February 2020, earlier than the primary lockdown, to August 2022, pushed by document low rates of interest and consumers “competing for more room”. promote.

Many economists say the market will not get better till properties and mortgage funds turn out to be extra inexpensive.

“Many potential consumers may also wait till costs have fallen considerably,” Dickens stated.

James Sproule, chief UK economist at Handelsbanken, stated he predicted home costs would fall by 8% within the present downturn and gross sales would fall by as a lot as 60% from their peak in 2020.

He stated he anticipated residence costs to turn out to be extra inexpensive by 2024, “stimulating a restoration out there as customers understand rates of interest have peaked and home costs are much less more likely to fall additional”.


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